Academic Publications

Hoyer, Daniel, James S Bennett, Samantha Holder, Robert Howard, Jill Levine, and Peter Turchin. Forthcoming. “Navigating Polycrisis: Long-Run Socio-Cultural Factors Shape Response to Changing Climate.” Edited by Anne C Pisor, J. Stephen Lansing, and Kate Magargal. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Special Issue: Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture.

Orlandi, Georg, Daniel Hoyer, Zhao Hongjun, James S Bennett, Majid Benam, Kathryn Kohn, and Peter Turchin. In Preparation. “Structural-Demographic Analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) Collapse in China Edit Paper.” Preprint available here: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/5awhk

Hoyer, Daniel, James S. Bennett, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Kevin Feeney, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Donagh Davis, and Peter Turchin. In Preparation. “Flattening the Curve: Learning the Lessons of World History to Mitigate Societal Crises.” Preprint available here: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/hyj48.

Hoyer, Daniel. Forthcoming. “Decline and Fall, Growth and Spread, or Resilience? Approaches to Studying How and Why Societies Change.” Journal of World History 34 (4). Preprint available here: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/43rgx/

Turchin, Peter. Forthcoming. “Multipath Forecasting: The Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis.” reprint available here: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/f37jy/

全球史的宏观显微镜：Seshat全球史数据辟的 方法论梳理•. •…「英？皮耶特•花朗索瓦等 (Global History Review, Vol 19)

Dacura 54 ——历史研究的数据收笨和知识提取新途径⋯……〔美〕彼得。比勒金等 (Global History Review, Vol 19)

Turchin Peter, Harvey Whitehouse, Sergey Gavrilets, Daniel Hoyer, Pieter Francois, James S. Bennett, Kevin C. Feeney, Peter Peregrine, Gary Feinman, Andrey Korotayev, Nikolay Kradin, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Enrico Cioni, Romain Wacziarg, Gavin Medel-Gleason, Majid Benam. 2022. “Disentangling the Evolutionary Drivers of Social Complexity: A Comprehensive Test of Hypotheses.” Science Advances 8(25): eabn3517. doi: 10.1080/2153599X.2022.2065345.

Turchin, Peter, Harvey Whitehouse, Jennifer Larson, Daniel Hoyer, Selin E. Nugent, R. Alan Covey, John Baines, Mark Altaweel, Eugene Anderson, Peter K. Bol, Eva Brandl, David Carballo, Gary Feinman, Andrey Korotayev, Nikolay Kradin, Jill Levine, Selin Nugent, Peter Peregrine, Andrea Squitieri, Vesna Wallace, Pieter Francois. 2022. “Explaining the Rise of Moralizing Religions: A Test of Competing Hypotheses Using the Seshat Databank.” Religion, Brain, & Behaviour, 1-28. doi:10.31235/osf.io/2v59j

Whitehouse, Harvey, Pieter François, Patrick E. Savage, Daniel Hoyer, Kevin C. Feeney, Enrico Cioni, Rosalind Purcell, Jennifer Larson, John Baines, Barend her Haar, Alan Covers, Peter Turchin. 2022. “Testing the Big Gods Hypothesis with Global Historical Data: A Review and ‘Retake.’” Religion, Brain & Behavior, 1–4310.1080/2153599X.2022.2065345

Turchin, Peter, Harvey Whitehouse, Jennifer Larson, Enrico Cioni, Jenny Reddish, Daniel Hoyer, Patrick E. Savage, R. Alan Covey, John Baines, Mark Altaweel, Eugene Anderson, Peter K. Bol, Eva Brandl, David M. Carballo, Gary Feinman, Andrey Korotayev, Nikolay Kradin, Jill Levine, Selin Nugent, Andrea Squitieri, Vesna Wallace, Pieter Francois. 2022. “Big Gods and Big Science: Further Reflections on Theory, Data, and Analysis.” Religion, Brain & Behavior, 1–14. doi: 10.1080/2153599X.2022.2065354

Bennett, James. 2022. "Retrodicting the Rise, Spread, and Fall of Large-scale States in the Old World." PLOS-One. 10.1371/journal.pone.0261816

Turchin, Peter, Daniel Hoyer , Andrey Korotayev, Nikolay Kradin, Sergey Nefedov, Gary Feinman, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Enrico Cioni, Chelsea Thorpe, James S. Bennett, Pieter Francois, Harvey Whitehouse. 2021. “Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution,” PLOS-One16(10): e0258161. doi: doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258161

Turchin, Peter, Thomas E. Currie, Christina Collins, Jill Levine, Oluwole Oyebamiji, Neil R. Edwards, Philip.B. Holden, Daniel Hoyer, Kevin Feeney, Pieter François, and Harvey Whitehouse. 2021. An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank." The Holocene, 1-11. doi: 10.1177/0959683621994644

Whitehouse, Harvey, Pieter François, Patrick E. Savage, Thomas E. Currie, Kevin C. Feeney, Enrico Cioni, Rosalind Purcell, Robert M. Ross, Jennifer Larson, John Baines, Barend ter Haar, R. Alan Covey, and Peter Turchin. 2020. "A New Era in the Study of Global History is Born but it Needs to be Nurtured." Journal of Cognitive Historiography 5 (1-2 (2018)). doi: 10.1558/jch.39422.

Turchin, Peter, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Daniel Hoyer, Abel Alves, John Baines....Liye Xie. 2020. "An Introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank." Journal of Cognitive Historiography 5 (1-2 (2018)). https://doi.org/10.1558/jch.39395

Currie, Thomas E., Peter Turchin, Edward Turner, and Sergey Gavrilets. 2020. "Duration of agriculture and distance from the steppe predict the evolution of large-scale human societies in Afro-Eurasia." Nature Humanities and Social Science Communications 7 (34). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-0516-2

Turchin, Peter, Daniel Hoyer, James Bennett, Kiran Basava, Enrico Cioni, Pieter Francois, Samantha Holder, Jill Levine, Selin Nugent, Jenny Reddish, Chelsea Thorpe, Sal Wiltshire, Harvey Whitehouse. 2020. "The Equinox2020 Seshat Data Release." Cliodynamics 11(1): 41-50. https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio11148620

Turchin, Peter, Nina Witoszek, Stefan Thurner, David Garcia, Roger Griffin, Daniel Hoyer, Atle Midttun, James Bennett, Knut Myrum Næss, and Sergey Gavrilets. 2018. “A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience.” Cliodynamics 9: 124-39. https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio9242078.

Turchin, Peter. 2018. “Fitting Dynamic Regression Models to Seshat Data.” Cliodynamics 9: 25-58. https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio9137696.

Turchin, Peter. 2018. “Translating Knowledge about Past Societies into Seshat Data.” Cliodynamics 9: 143-147.

Mullins, Daniel Austin, Daniel Hoyer, Christina Collins, Thomas Currie, Kevin Feeney, Pieter François, Patrick E. Savage, Harvey Whitehouse, and Peter Turchin. 2018. “A Systematic Assessment of ‘Axial Age’ Proposals Using Global Comparative Historical Evidence.” American Sociological Review 83 (3): 596–626. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122418772567.

Turchin, Peter, Thomas E. Currie, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Kevin Feeney, Daniel Mullins, Daniel Hoyer, Christina Collins, Stephanie Grohmann, Patrick Savage, Gavin Mendel-Gleason, Edward Turner, Agathe Dupeyron, Enrico Cioni, Jenny Reddish, Jill Levine, Greine Jordan, Eva Brandl, Alice Williams, Rudolf Cesaretti, Marta Krueger, Alessandro Ceccarelli, Joe Figliulo-Rosswurm, Po-Ju Tuan, Peter Peregrine, Arkadiusz Marciniak, Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, Nikolay Kradin, Andrey Korotayev, Alessio Palmisano, David Baker, Julye Bidmead, Peter Bol, David Christian, Connie Cook, R. Alan Covey, Gary Feinman, Árni Daníel Júlíusson, Axel Kristinsson, John Miksic, Ruth Mostern, Cameron Petrie, Peter Rudiak-Gould, Barend ter Haar, Vesna Wallace, Victor Mair, Liye Xie, John Baines, Elizabeth Bridges, Joseph Manning, Bruce Lockhart, Amy Bogaard, and Charles Spencer. 2018. “Quantitative Historical Analysis Uncovers a Single Dimension of Complexity That Structures Global Variation in Human Social Organization.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (2): E144–51. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115.

Turchin, Peter, Thomas E. Currie, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Kevin Feeney, Daniel Mullins, Daniel Hoyer, Christina Collins, Stephanie Grohmann, Patrick Savage, Gavin Mendel-Gleason, Edward Turner, Agathe Dupeyron, Enrico Cioni, Jenny Reddish, Jill Levine, Greine Jordan, Eva Brandl, Alice Williams, Rudolf Cesaretti, Marta Krueger, Alessandro Ceccarelli, Joe Figliulo-Rosswurm, Po-Ju Tuan, Peter Peregrine, Arkadiusz Marciniak, Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, Nikolay Kradin, Andrey Korotayev, Alessio Palmisano, David Baker, Julye Bidmead, Peter Bol, David Christian, Connie Cook, R. Alan Covey, Gary Feinman, Árni Daníel Júlíusson, Axel Kristinsson, John Miksic, Ruth Mostern, Cameron Petrie, Peter Rudiak-Gould, Barend ter Haar, Vesna Wallace, Victor Mair, Liye Xie, John Baines, Elizabeth Bridges, Joseph Manning, Bruce Lockhart, Amy Bogaard, and Charles Spencer. 2018 “Reply to Tosh et al.: Quantitative analyses of cultural evolution require engagement with historical and archaeological research.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (26): E5841-5842. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807312115.

Hoyer, Daniel. “An Overview of the Numismatic Evidence from Imperial Roman Africa.” ISAWPapers 13 (2018). http://dlib.nyu.edu/awdl/isaw/isaw-papers/13/.

Peregrine, Peter N., Rob Brennan, Thomas Currie, Kevin Feeney, Pieter François, Peter Turchin, and Harvey Whitehouse. 2018. "Dacura: A new solution to data harvesting and knowledge extraction for the historical sciences." Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History. 51 (3): 165-174. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01615440.2018.1443863. 

Hoyer, Daniel and J.G. Manning. 2018. "Empirical Regularities across Time, Space, and Culture: A Critical Review of Comparative Methods in Ancient Historical Research." Historia. 

Brewer, J., M. Gelfrand, JC. Jackson, IF. Macdonald, PN. Peregrine, PJ. Richerson, P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse, and DS. Wilson. 2017. "Grand challenges for the study of cultural evolution." Nat Ecol Evol 1(3): 70. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0070

Turchin, Peter, Thomas E. Currie, and Edward A.L. Turner. 2016. "Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare." Cliodynamics 7(2): 217-227. doi: 10.21237/C7clio7233509. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/8qq4w9q5.

Hoyer, Daniel. 2016. “Turning the Inside Out: the fragmentation of Roman rule in Gaul and Africa during the third century A.D.” In Rome and the Worlds beyond Its Frontiers, edited by M. Peachin and D. Slootjes, 67–95. Leiden: Brill.

McKay, Ryan T., and Harvey Whitehouse. 2016. "Religion promotes a love for thy neighbor. But how big is the neighbourhood?" (Commentary on Norenzayan et al.). Behavioral and Brain Sciences 39. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X15000503.

Wilson, David Sloan, Yasha Hartberg, Ian MacDonald, Jonathan A. Lanman, and Harvey Whitehouse. 2016. “The Nature of Religious Diversity: A Cultural Ecosystem Approach.” Religion, Brain, and Behavior. doi: 10.1080/2153599X.2015. 1132243

François, Pieter, Joseph Manning, Harvey Whitehouse, Rob Brennan, Thomas Currie, Kevin Feeney, and Peter Turchin. 2016. "A Macroscope for Global History: Seshat Global History Databank, a Methodological Overview." Digital Humanities Quarterly 10(4). http://www.digitalhumanities.org/dhq/vol/10/4/000272/000272.html.

Brennan, Rob, Kevin Feeney, Gavin Mendel-Gleason, Bojan Bozic, Peter Turchin, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Thomas Currie, and Stephanie Grohmann. 2016. "Building the Seshat Ontology for a Global History Databank." The Semantic Web. Latest Advances and New Domains, 13th International Conference, ESWC 2016, Proceedings, LNCS, ed. H. Sack, Blomqvist, E., d'Aquin, M., Ghidini, C., Paolo Ponzetto, S., Lange, C., vol. 9678, 693–708.  http://seshatdatabank.info/publications/eswc2016seshatontologyrevised_v09/.

Turchin, Peter and Thomas E. Currie. 2016. "Cultural group selection is plausible, but the predictions of its hypotheses should be tested with real-world data." Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 39: 43–44.

Currie, Thomas E, Peter Turchin, Jenna Bednar, Peter J. Richerson, Georg Schwesinger, Sven Steinmo, Romain Wacziarg, and John Wallis. 2016. "Evolution of Institutions and Organizations." Complexity and Evolution: Toward a New Synthesis for Economics, ed. D. S. Wilson and A. Kirman. Strüngmann Forum Reports, vol. 19, J. Lupp, series editor. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press

Whitehouse, Harvey, Pieter François, and Peter Turchin. 2015. "The Role of Ritual in the Evolution of Social Complexity: Five Predictions and a Drum Roll." Cliodynamics 6: 199–216. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/4836f93g.

Turchin, Peter, Rob Brennan, Thomas Currie, Kevin Feeney, Pieter François, Daniel Hoyer, Joseph Manning, Arkadiusz Marciniak, Daniel Mullins, Alessio Palmisano, Peter Peregrine, Edward A.L. Turner, and Harvey Whitehouse. 2015. "Seshat: The Global History Databank." Cliodynamics 6: 77–107. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9qx38718.

Currie, Thomas, Amy Bogaard, Rudolf Cesaretti, Neil R. Edwards, Pieter François, Philip Holden, Daniel Hoyer, et. al. 2015. "Agricultural Productivity in Past Societies: Toward an Empirically Informed Model for Testing Cultural Evolutionary Hypotheses." Cliodynamics 6: 24–56. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4h29270b.

Savage PE, S Brown, E Sakai, and TE Currie. 2015. “Statistical universals reveal the structures and functions of human music.” Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 112(29), 8987–8992. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2014.2556.

Watts J, SJ Greenhill, QD Atkinson, TE Currie, J Bulbulia, and RD Gray. 2015. “Broad supernatural punishment but not moralizing high gods precede the evolution of political complexity in Austronesia.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 282(1804).

Salali, Gul Deniz, Harvey Whitehouse, and Michael E. Hochberg. 2015. “A Life-Cycle Model of Human Social Groups Produces a U-Shaped Distribution in Group Size.” PLoS ONE 10(9): e0138496. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138496

McKay, Ryan and Harvey Whitehouse. 2015. “Religion and Morality.” Psychological Bulletin 141(2): 447–73. doi:1037/a0038455

Turchin, Peter. 2014. "Cultural Evolution and Cliodynamics." Cliodynamics 5: 1–3. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/63v195gz.

Turchin, Peter. 2014. “The SESHAT Databank Project: the 2014 Report.” Cliodynamics 5: 58–64. doi: 10.21237/c7clio5125311. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/5pv8z9g6

Whitehouse, Harvey and Jonathan A. Lanman. 2014. “The Ties that Bind Us: Ritual, fusion, and identification.” Current Anthropology 55(6): 674 – 695. doi: 10.1086/678698.

Whitehouse, Harvey, Brian McQuinn, Michael Buhrmester, and William B. Swann. 2014. "Brothers in Arms: Libyan revolutionaries bond like Family." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111(50): 17783–17785. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1416284111.

Turchin, Peter, Thomas E. Currie, Edward A.L. Turner, and Sergey Gavrilets. 2013. "War, Space, and the Evolution of Old World Complex Societies." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (31): 16384–89. doi:10.1073/pnas.1308825110. http://www.pnas.org/content/110/41/16384.abstract

Turchin, Peter. 2013. "The West and the Rest: The Science of the Great Divergence." Cliodynamics 4 (1): 67–85. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/577293kd.

Turchin, Peter. 2012. "Religion and Empire in the Axial Age." Religion, Brain & Behavior 2: 256–60. doi:10.1080/2153599X.2012.721220. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2153599X.2012.721220.

Turchin, Peter, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Edward Slingerland, and Mark Collard. 2012. "A Historical Database of Sociocultural Evolution." Cliodynamics 3 (2): 271–293. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/2x14s2tw.

Turchin, Peter. 2011. "Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History." Cliodynamics 2: 167–186. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/82s3p5hj.

Turchin, Peter. 2008. "Arise ‘cliodynamics.’" Nature 454 (7200): 34–35. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v454/n7200/full/454034a.html.

Whitehouse, Harvey, 2018. "Ritual and Social Evolution: Understanding Social Complexity Through Data." In Computational History and Data-Driven Humanities, Second IFIP WG 12.7 International Workshop, CHDDH 2016, Dublin, Ireland, May 25, 2016, Revised Selected Papers, edited by Bojan Bozic, Gavin Mendel-Gleason, Christophe Debruyne, and Declan O'Sullivan, 3-14. New York: Springer. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-46224-0

Feeney, Kevin, 2018. "The Dacura Data Curation System." In Computational History and Data-Driven Humanities, Second IFIP WG 12.7 International Workshop, CHDDH 2016, Dublin, Ireland, May 25, 2016, Revised Selected Papers, edited by Bojan Bozic, Gavin Mendel-Gleason, Christophe Debruyne, and Declan O'Sullivan, 15-20. New York: Springer. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-46224-0

Francois, Pieter, Stephanie Grohmann, Katja Eck, Odhran Gavin, Andreas Koller, Helmut Nagy, Christian Dirschl, Peter Turchin and Harvey Whitehouse. 2018. "Evaluation." In Engineering Agile Big-Data Systems, edited by Kevin Feeney et al., San Francisco, CA: River Publishers. https://www.riverpublishers.com/research_details.php?book_id=659. 

Gronenborn, D., H.C. Strien, P. Turchin, and R. v. Dick. 2018. "Social Diversity, Social Identity and the Emergence of Surplus in the Western-Central European Neolithic." In Surplus without the State: Political Forms in Prehistory, edited by H. Meller, D. Gronenborn, and R. Risch, 201-222. Halle: Tagungen des Landesmuseums Vorgeschichte.

Manning, Patrick, Pieter François, Daniel Hoyer, and Vladimir Zadorozhny. 2017. "Collaborative Historical Information Analysis." In Comprehensive Geographic Information Systems, 3 vols, edited by Bo Huang. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Whitehouse, Harvey, and Pieter François. 2017. “Ritual, Emotion, and Power.” In Merridee L. Bailey and Katie Barclay (eds.) Emotion, Ritual and Power in Europe, 1200-1920. Palgrave Macmillan. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-44185-6

Whitehouse, Harvey. 2016. “Ritual and Social Evolution: Understanding social complexity through data.” In Computational History and Data-Driven Humanities, edited by B. Bozic et al., 1–12. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-46224-01

Whitehouse, Harvey and Dan Jones. 2016. “Modes of Religiosity.” In Mental Religion: The Brain, Cognition, and Culture, edited by Niki Clements. Macmillan Interdisciplinary Handbooks on Religion. London: Macmillan.

Whitehouse, Harvey. 2015. “Explaining Religion and Ritual.” In Religion: Perspectives from the Engelsberg seminar 2014, edited by K. Almqvist and A. Linklater, 261–70. Stockholm: Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation.

Whitehouse, Harvey, Camilla Mazzucato, Ian Hodder, and Quentin D. Atkinson. 2014. "Modes of Religiosity and the Evolution of Social Complexity at Çatalhöyük." In Religion at Work in a Neolithic Society. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. http://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/47334/toc/9781107047334_toc.pdf.

Hoyer, Daniel and Jenny Reddish, eds. 2019. Seshat History of the Axial Age. Chaplin, Connecticut: Beresta Books. Purchase link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0996139567.

Levine, Jill. 2019. "Deconstructing a Discipline: A Review of Taking Back Philosophy: A Multicultural Manifesto by Bryan Van Norden (Columbia University Press, 2017). Cliodynamics 10: 40-45.

Nugent, Selin. 2019. "A Revolution through Evolution: A Review of the First Farmers of Europe: An Evolutionary Perspective by Stephen Shennan (Cambridge University Press, 2018). Cliodynamics 10: 67-75

Hoyer, Daniel. 2018. “Pulling a Little Optimism Out of a Very Grim Account of Global Inequality. A Review of The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century by Walter Scheidel (Princeton University Press, 2017).” Cliodynamics 9: 130-142. https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio9138349.

Mullins, Daniel. 2016. "A Review of Tim Lewens' Cultural Evolution: Conceptual Challenges." Cliodynamics 7: 290–297. doi: 10.21237/C7clio7233335. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/3790p0p0.

Hoyer, Daniel. 2016. “Monotheisms and Inter-Faith Conflict Precipitated the Rise of Western Europe. A Review of War, Peace, and Prosperity in the Name of God: The Ottoman Role in Europe's Socioeconomic Evolution by Murat Iyigun (University of Chicago Press, 2015)." Cliodynamics 7: 181–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.21237/C7clio7131581.

Collins, Christina. 2016. "Fear over Hope: A Review of Dominic Johnson’s God is Watching You." Cliodynamics 7: 298–303. doi: 10.21237/C7clio7233334. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/81s526vs.

Mullins, Daniel. 2015. "War, Peace, and Human Nature: The Convergence of Evolutionary and Cultural Views by Douglas Fry." Journal of the Anthropological Society of Oxford. 7 (2): 239–45. https://www.isca.ox.ac.uk/fileadmin/ISCA/JASO/2015/Book_reviews_7-2.pdf

Currie, Thomas E. 2014. "Developing Scales of Development." Cliodynamics 5: 65–74.  http://escholarship.org/uc/item/1gm3v3cp.

Currie, Thomas. 2013. "Inequality and Institutions: A Review Essay on Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson." Cliodynamics 4: 153–161. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8bm04882.

Turchin, Peter. 2016. "Mine the Past for Patterns." Nature 535:488–489. http://www.nature.com/news/lessons-from-brexit-1.20306.