Crisis and Recovery Database

Can we write a history of the near future? Are human societies in some sense predictable? Specifically, can we really understand why nation-states sometimes experience periods of declining socio-political resilience and stability, often resulting in social breakdown? Even more importantly, can we understand how societies recover from periods of internal upheaval/intense political violence and re-establish communal cohesion and social cooperation? Seshat: Global History Databank are employing a unique combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches to the study of history to predict a series of probabilistic scenarios of social collapse and recovery. Our team will investigate the anatomy of collapse and recovery in a smaller subset of case-studies. We focus not only on demographic and economic trends, but also on the study of public sentiments, such as moral outrage, resentment, fear, and enthusiasm, that fuel social protest. Behind such sentiments there are concrete, identifiable narratives, symbols and ideas, which make communities “tick.”